Final Campaign Push: US Senate Hopefuls in Texas Rally Supporters

SAN ANTONIO — In any other year, a three-term incumbent Republican senator from Texas would sleep soundly heading into a primary. But this is not any other year, and John Cornyn is not sleeping soundly.

With just two days until Texas holds the nation’s first major primary of the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican Senate race has become a brawl for the soul of the party—and a potential opportunity for Democrats who haven’t won a Senate seat here since 1988.

The Republican Civil War

John Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002. He has served as the party’s whip, raised millions for Republican candidates, and built relationships over decades. By traditional measures, he should be unbeatable in a primary.

But traditional measures mean little in today’s Republican Party.

Cornyn faces two primary challengers who argue he is not conservative enough, not Trump enough, not tough enough. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton brings years of name recognition and a base of MAGA loyalists who admire his combative legal battles against the Biden administration and, previously, against the Trump administration’s perceived inadequacies. US Rep. Wesley Hunt offers a younger face and military background, splitting the anti-Cornyn vote in ways that could prove decisive.

The incumbent is not taking chances. At a seafood restaurant in The Woodlands on Saturday, he warned supporters against overconfidence.

“Complacency is a killer,” Cornyn told the crowd. “It kills relationships. It kills careers.”

He knows what hangs in the balance. No Republican senator from Texas has ever lost a primary. If Cornyn falls, it will send shockwaves through Washington and signal that no incumbent is safe from the party’s restless base.

The MAGA Factor

Paxton has positioned himself as the true Trump ally in the race, despite his own lengthy list of legal entanglements—including securities fraud charges that have lingered for years and an FBI investigation into corruption allegations brought by former aides. To his supporters, these are badges of honor, evidence that the establishment fears him. To Republican leaders in Washington, they represent a general election disaster waiting to happen.

Senate Republican leaders have worried aloud for months that a Paxton nomination could hand Democrats a seat they have no business winning. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades. But in an environment where every seat counts in a razor-thin majority, party elders are not eager to test whether Paxton’s legal baggage would sink him in November.

The Democratic Puzzle

While Republicans sort through their internal divisions, Democrats see opportunity—if they can solve their own primary puzzle.

The Democratic field features two very different candidates with very different theories about how to win in Texas.

US Rep. Jasmine Crockett has built a national reputation as a fierce Trump antagonist, a “rhetorical brawler” who thrives on confrontation. She has the endorsement of former Vice President Kamala Harris and is spending the final days campaigning with Maryland Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Her message: Texas needs a fighter who will stand up to the Republican agenda without apology.

State Rep. James Talarico offers a contrasting approach. A soft-spoken former seminarian, he emphasizes his ability to appeal to Republican and independent voters. He describes his final campaign tour as a “movement” and argues that winning in Texas requires building bridges rather than burning them. His rally in San Antonio Sunday represents a final pitch to moderate Democrats and crossover Republicans who may be uneasy with their own party’s direction.

What Tuesday Will Tell Us

The Texas primary is the first major test of voter sentiment in the 2026 midterms. It will offer clues to several questions that will shape the political landscape for the next two years:

Can an incumbent Republican with establishment backing survive a well-funded challenge from the populist right?

Will Trump’s endorsement—expected any day—tip the scales decisively, or has his grip on the base loosened since leaving office?

Do Democrats want a bare-knuckle brawler or a consensus-building moderate to carry their flag in the nation’s biggest red state?

And most importantly: Is Texas truly competitive, or will the state’s Republican tilt hold firm no matter who emerges from the primary?

The Stakes

For Cornyn, Tuesday is about survival. For Paxton and Hunt, it is about proving that the party’s future belongs to those who challenge the establishment. For Crockett and Talarico, it is about convincing Democrats that Texas is worth the investment.

And for the Senate majority, it is about a single question: can Republicans hold a seat they have never lost, or will Texas become the next great Democratic pickup?

The answer begins to take shape Tuesday night. But the brawl in Texas is far from over.

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