How SpaceX Became One of the Hottest Assets in Private Markets
NEW YORK — SpaceX’s stock continued its volatile ride on Tuesday, briefly dipping below its first‑day opening price before rebounding, as Wall Street scrutinised the shifting balance between buyers and sellers of the rocket company’s shares.
Since its record $75 billion IPO on June 12, the stock has surged as much as 67 percent and fallen 35 percent from that peak. Analysts say the wild swings do not necessarily reflect a fundamental shift in views on SpaceX’s prospects, given the flood of information that preceded the listing and the relative silence since.
Index Inclusion and Research Coverage
The coming days could bring fresh catalysts. SpaceX is expected to be added to Russell indexes on Friday as part of FTSE Russell’s regular reconstitution. Jefferies estimates that could draw $2.68 billion in inflows from passive investors. The company is also expected to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 6, and the quiet period for investment banks involved in the IPO ends on July 7, allowing research coverage to begin.
“The ETFs will still be buyers on the day of inclusion, providing some demand for the stock,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at TMX VettaFi.
Options Market Turns Defensive
Investors’ initial rush to buy bullish options has given way to more balanced activity. Options data imply about a 40 percent probability that the stock trades below $130 by mid‑September, according to Susquehanna Financial Group. Contracts expiring July through September show nearly two puts for each open call at strike prices between $125 and $190, pointing to defensive positioning.
“I don’t think this is unusual given the performance of hot IPOs in the immediate term and the need for hedges surrounding unlock periods,” said Ophir Gottlieb, CEO of Capital Market Laboratories, who has been invested in SpaceX since 2022.
SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, combines rockets and computing operations. It completed the largest IPO in history on June 12 after folding its computing unit into the company in February. The shares were trading around $162.80 on Tuesday afternoon, up 5 percent on the day, after earlier hitting $147.11 amid a broader tech selloff.
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