How Israel’s Buffer Zone Plan Could Change the Map of Southern Lebanon

BEIRUT — Lebanon faces what officials describe as “one of the most dangerous moments in recent memory” as Israeli forces push into southern territory, raising fears that a planned buffer zone could permanently redraw the country’s border region.

The latest escalation follows Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces from areas both south and north of the Litani River, triggering a renewed Israeli air and ground campaign. Announcing its ground incursion, Israel said it aims to establish what it calls a permanent “security zone” along the border.

The exact depth of the proposed zone remains unclear, but its human cost is already mounting. More than 80 towns and villages have been emptied following successive evacuation orders, forcing tens of thousands of residents to flee north of the Litani River. Orders have now reached Beirut’s southern suburbs, where residents have been told to leave their homes with no clear timeline for return.

Israeli estimates suggest roughly 350,000 Lebanese may be forced from their homes — on top of the approximately 85,000 frontline villagers who never returned from earlier displacement rounds.

The Map Taking Shape

Statements from Israeli officials and developments on the ground point to a broader strategy: establishing a civilian-free buffer zone along the 120-kilometer border, extending up to 10 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory. That would translate to roughly 1,200 square kilometers — close to 10 percent of Lebanon’s land.

The blueprint was already taking shape during the 66-day war of 2024. Israeli forces razed homes in frontline villages and sprayed chemical agents across farmland, stripping vegetation that Hezbollah fighters used for cover. Five hilltop positions — Hamames, Uwayda, Aaziyyeh, Jabal Blat, and Labbouneh — remain under Israeli control inside Lebanese territory. The Lebanese Army reports additional positions have been established in recent months.

Brig. Gen. Mounir Shehadeh, the former Lebanese government coordinator with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, said the term “buffer zone” is a concept Israel has used since its inception.

“In the media, it is framed as protecting settlements, but in reality Israel uses it to reshape facts on the ground, hoping that over time the buffer zone will become part of Israel. The Golan Heights is a clear example of this,” he told Arab News.

Drawing the Boundaries

According to Shehadeh, the evacuation map suggests the buffer plan extends far beyond a localized response to rocket fire. Instead, it points to an attempt to impose a comprehensive security zone that would depopulate the border area and transform it into open military ground.

“The Litani River is crucial to Israeli doctrine,” he said. Based on that, the boundaries of the proposed buffer zone can be roughly estimated: to the south, the entire Blue Line from Naqoura to the outskirts of Shebaa Farms; to the north, a line running roughly parallel to the Litani River in some sections, extending between three and eight kilometers into Lebanese territory depending on terrain and population density.

To the west lies the Mediterranean coast at Naqoura, and to the east, the outskirts of the Arqoub region and the highlands overlooking the Upper Galilee.

The buffer zone could span approximately 250 to 400 square kilometers, depending on the depth of the actual incursion.

If Israeli forces reach the outskirts of the Litani River, it would effectively revive a security belt similar to the one that existed before 2000, but on a larger scale extending toward the western Bekaa Valley. Further advances could push north to the Awali River, as occurred during the 1982 war that culminated in the occupation of Beirut.

International Response

UNIFIL has expressed “grave concern” regarding Israeli calls for civilian evacuation north of the Litani. The mission reported several Israeli military movements in its area of operations, including near Khiam, Beit Lif, Yaroun, Houla, Kfar Kila, El Khirbe, and Kfar Shouba, amid ongoing airstrikes.

UNIFIL considers these actions “not only a violation of Resolution 1701, but also a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The mission also noted rockets and shells fired from Lebanese territory toward Israel, likewise violating the resolution.

The Lebanese Armed Forces confirmed the incursion of Israeli forces, calling it a “flagrant violation of international resolutions and Lebanese sovereignty.” It stated that military units are redeploying at several border points despite limited capabilities, while implementing exceptional measures to maintain security.

According to Shehadeh, UNIFIL has already begun reducing troop numbers and withdrawing equipment ahead of the expected end of its mission in southern Lebanon in late 2027.

“In contrast, Israel no longer recognizes the Blue Line or Resolution 1701,” he said. “This will present Lebanon with a new security and geographical reality, altering the lines of deployment and engagement and complicating any subsequent political settlement.”

Human Toll

The number of displaced people has reached nearly 100,000, a figure expected to rise sharply following the mass exodus that began Thursday from Beirut’s southern suburbs — home to more than one million residents from across Lebanon’s various communities.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that at least 102 people have been killed and 638 injured since Israeli airstrikes began on Monday.

Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed said that 83,847 displaced people, or 18,033 families, had registered in shelters due to the evacuation warnings, with 399 shelter centers now operating across Lebanon.

A senior Lebanese political source told Arab News: “The facts on the ground are changing every minute. What we are trying to do is stop the ongoing military operations so we can assess how to return to the negotiating table and implement international resolutions.”

The source added that while the Lebanese government had raised the prospect of negotiations, Lebanon no longer appears a priority in international calculations, leaving the situation largely determined by the balance of power on the ground.

Political Shifts

Following an emergency cabinet session Thursday, Information Minister Paul Morcos announced that Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had criticized those responsible for dragging Lebanon into the latest escalation.

“Whoever committed a sin is the one who dragged Lebanon into repercussions we could have done without. Talk of treason is not courage; it is irresponsible and incites strife,” Salam said, according to Morcos.

The remarks came after Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem criticized the government Wednesday night as he defended the group’s decision to abandon earlier pledges to keep Lebanon neutral amid the regional conflict.

Morcos also announced that the government had decided to reinstate visa requirements for Iranian nationals entering Lebanon. It would also ban any activity by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a main backer of Hezbollah, while seeking to deport its members from Lebanon.

The UN Security Council is set to hold a briefing next Tuesday on the implementation of Resolution 1701, as Lebanon’s leaders brace for what comes next.

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