Bird Flu Could Be More Dangerous Than COVID, Warns Institut Pasteur
PARIS — A leading French scientist has warned that the bird flu virus currently circulating among wild birds, poultry, and mammals could trigger a pandemic more severe than COVID-19 if it mutates to spread between humans.
Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director of the respiratory infections center at the Institut Pasteur, emphasized that while human infections remain rare, the potential adaptation of the virus to efficient human-to-human transmission poses a serious global threat.
“What we fear is the virus adapting to mammals, and particularly to humans, becoming capable of human-to-human transmission,” Rameix-Welti told Reuters. “That virus would be a pandemic virus.”
The highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, has already led to the culling of hundreds of millions of birds worldwide in recent years, disrupting food supplies and driving up prices.
Unlike seasonal flu strains such as H1 and H3, against which people commonly carry antibodies, humans have no natural immunity to the H5 subtype of bird flu—similar to the lack of pre-existing immunity to COVID-19 at the start of that pandemic. Moreover, influenza viruses can be deadly even for healthy individuals, including children.
“A bird flu pandemic would probably be quite severe, potentially even more severe than the pandemic we experienced,” Rameix-Welti stated.
According to the World Health Organization, nearly 1,000 human cases of bird flu were reported between 2003 and 2025, primarily in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with a fatality rate of 48 percent. Recent months have seen the H5N1 strain detected in U.S. poultry and dairy cows, and the first human case of H5N5 was reported this month in Washington state, resulting in a fatality.
Despite these concerns, Gregorio Torres, head of the Science Department at the World Organization for Animal Health, sought to reassure the public. “The pandemic risk is a possibility. But in terms of probability, it’s still very low,” he said. “You can happily walk in the forest, eat chicken and eggs and enjoy your life.”
Rameix-Welti also highlighted that global health systems are now better prepared than before COVID-19. Vaccine candidates are already developed, antiviral stocks are available, and manufacturing capabilities have been strengthened.
The Institut Pasteur, which played a key role in developing early COVID-19 tests, continues to monitor avian flu developments closely, urging vigilance while affirming that the world is not defenseless against a potential outbreak.
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